Nov 24, 2025, Posted by: Ava Bialy
When the Arizona Cardinals host the Jacksonville Jaguars at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, November 23, 2025, it won’t just be about playoff positioning—it’ll be about survival. With star receivers out, defenses trending in opposite directions, and sharp bettors lining up behind the underdog, this isn’t your typical midseason clash. The Cardinals are +2.5 underdogs, the over/under sits at 47.5, and the numbers tell a story far more complicated than the point spread suggests.
Key Injuries Reshape the Matchup
The absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Cardinals is a seismic blow. He wasn’t just their best receiver—he was their only consistent deep threat. Without him, the offense has to pivot, and that’s exactly what happened last week against San Francisco. Greg Dortch, once a depth piece, saw a season-high 17 routes run and caught all six targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. He’s now the de facto No. 1. Meanwhile, the Jaguars lost Brian Thomas Jr., their explosive rookie receiver who had been their most dynamic playmaker. That leaves Jakobi Meyers as the primary target for Trevor Lawrence. Meyers, acquired midseason from Las Vegas, has already shown chemistry—five catches on six targets in his second game with Jacksonville. With Thomas out, Meyers’ Over 4.5 receptions at -130 isn’t just a safe bet—it’s a statistical inevitability.And then there’s Bhayshul Tuten. The Jaguars’ running back had emerged after their bye, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in two games. Now, he’s listed as "banged up." If he’s limited or out, Jacksonville’s offense loses its only reliable ground game. That means more pressure on Lawrence to carry the load—and we’ve seen how that ends.
Why the Cardinals Are a Better Bet Than the Spread Suggests
The Jaguars beat the Chargers 35-6 last week. Sounds impressive, right? But dig deeper. That game was a perfect storm: Los Angeles’ offensive line collapsed, and the Chargers’ defense was playing without three starters. The Jaguars’ 35 points came from three takeaways, two of which led to short-field touchdowns. Over their last six games, they’ve averaged just 0.8 turnovers forced per game—down from 3.3 in their first four. That’s not a sustainable formula.Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 6-1 ATS against AFC opponents since 2024. That’s the second-best record in the league in non-conference matchups. And here’s the kicker: CBS Sports’ predictive model shows Arizona covering in over 50% of simulations. Why? Because Jacoby Brissett is projected to outperform Lawrence in both yards and touchdowns. Brissett doesn’t need fireworks—he needs efficiency. And with Dortch, Michael Carter, and Trey McBride all active, he’s got enough weapons to keep the chains moving.
Top Prop Bets Experts Are Betting On
According to Action Network’s Gilles Gallant, the most compelling bets aren’t on the winner—they’re on the players.- Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (-130): With Thomas out, Meyers will see 7-9 targets. He’s caught 8 of 9 in his last two games. This is low-risk, high-probability.
- Greg Dortch ANYTIME TD (+300+): He’s now the primary red-zone target. He scored last week. He’s returning kicks. He’s in the right place at the right time.
- Arizona Cardinals Over 22.5 Points (-115): Sharp Football Analysis flagged this as a top Week 12 pick. Even with Harrison out, the Cardinals have scored 20+ in five of their last six games. Their offense is more consistent than people realize.
- Trevor Lawrence UNDER 215.5 Passing Yards: Lawrence has gone under that mark in 5 of his last 7 games. The Cardinals’ secondary is banged up, but they’ve held opposing QBs to 6.3 yards per attempt in the last three weeks.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Game Matters
Arizona is 4-6. They’re not out of the playoff race—not yet. A win here, combined with losses by other NFC teams, keeps them mathematically alive. But more than that, it’s about pride. They’ve lost four of five, but they’re still playing hard. Their defense has been inconsistent, yes—but they’ve held teams under 24 points in five of their last seven games.Jacksonville? They’re 5-5. On paper, they’re in the AFC South hunt. But their road record is 1-4 ATS this season. Their offense is ranked 28th in EPA per play. Lawrence has thrown more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9) since Week 5. Their defense, which forced 13 takeaways in the first four games, has forced just four in the last six.
This isn’t a team that’s peaking. It’s a team that’s holding on.
What’s Next?
If the Cardinals cover, expect the betting lines to shift hard in their favor next week. If they lose outright? The narrative becomes “they’re done.” But if Brissett throws two touchdowns, Dortch scores, and the defense forces a turnover or two? This could be the spark that reignites their season.And if the Jaguars win? It’ll be because of a fluke turnover or a special teams breakdown—not because their offense is suddenly elite.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Arizona a better bet than the spread suggests?
Despite being underdogs, Arizona has a 6-1 ATS record against AFC teams since 2024, and CBS Sports’ model projects them covering in over 50% of simulations. Jacksonville’s road ATS record is 1-4, and their offensive production has dropped sharply since Week 4, especially in passing efficiency. The Cardinals’ offense, while not flashy, is more consistent than most assume.
How do injuries affect this game’s outcome?
The loss of Marvin Harrison Jr. forces Arizona to rely on Greg Dortch and Trey McBride, which actually helps their short-passing game. For Jacksonville, Brian Thomas Jr.’s absence removes their biggest deep threat, leaving Jakobi Meyers as the only reliable receiver. Bhayshul Tuten’s injury further weakens their run game, increasing pressure on Trevor Lawrence, who’s already struggling with consistency.
Is the over/under of 47.5 points fair?
The over is tempting, but the under may be smarter. Both teams have struggled to score consistently: Arizona’s offense has been stagnant without Harrison, and Jacksonville’s passing game ranks 28th in EPA per play. The Jaguars’ last four games averaged 21.3 total points. The over has hit in just 3 of their last 8 games combined.
Why is Jakobi Meyers a top prop bet?
With Brian Thomas Jr. out, Meyers is now Jacksonville’s clear No. 1 receiver. He’s caught 8 of 9 targets in his last two games, including 5 receptions for 41 yards in his second game with the team. Arizona’s secondary allows 12.0 receptions per game to opposing wideouts—the 10th-most in the NFL. Meyers is projected to see 7+ targets and is a near-lock to clear 4.5 catches.
What’s the smartest bet for casual fans?
The safest bet is Arizona +2.5. The Cardinals are playing at home, have a strong ATS record against AFC teams, and Jacksonville’s offense has lost its edge. Even if the Jaguars win, it’ll likely be by 2 or 3 points. The Cardinals have covered in five of their last six home games. The value here is too good to ignore.
Can the Cardinals still make the playoffs?
Technically, yes—but it’s a long shot. They need to win at least three of their final four games and hope for multiple losses by NFC contenders like the Packers, Commanders, and Lions. A win over Jacksonville would keep them alive and give them momentum. Losing would make their path nearly impossible, with just two games left after this one.
Author
Ava Bialy
I'm a passionate artist and art enthusiast. I enjoy exploring different visual art forms, from painting to sculpting, and I love learning about the history of art and its impact on society. I'm always looking for new ways to express myself and to share my creativity with the world.