Nov 20, 2025, Posted by: Ava Bialy
The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers are set to clash at the Moda Center on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, in a game that could reshape Western Conference playoff hopes. Despite being listed as underdogs with a spread of +2.5, the Suns enter the matchup with a better record (9-6) and higher conference standing (8th) than the Trail Blazers (6-8, 9th). The game tips off at 8:10 PM Pacific Time — 4:00 AM UTC on Wednesday — and will be broadcast live on NBC/Peacock. What makes this more than just another mid-season contest? The numbers tell a story of chaos: Portland’s defense is among the league’s worst, and the public is betting against the grain — with nearly 60% of money on the underdog Suns.
Why the Public Is Betting Against the Odds
Here’s the twist: the Trail Blazers are favored to win outright at -125 on the moneyline, yet 59% of public bets and 57% of money wagered are on the Suns. Why? Because the numbers don’t lie. The Suns have won four of their last five games, covering the spread in each one — L W W W W. Meanwhile, Portland has lost four of five, and worse — they’ve failed to cover the spread in all five. That’s 0-5 ATS. Even more telling: the Blazers are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games, and 2-6 ATS in road games this season. The public knows this isn’t just about who’s better on paper. It’s about who’s trending.
The Scoring Explosion Nobody Can Ignore
The over/under line sits at 235.5–236.5 points, and 78% of money bets are on the Over. That’s not a fluke. The Trail Blazers allow 122.2 points per game — the third-worst mark in the NBA. The Suns aren’t much better defensively, giving up 118.8. Both teams average over 118 points per game on offense. When Portland plays at home, the Over has hit in five of their last six games. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a pattern. The Moda Center, with its intimate, loud crowd and fast-paced tempo, seems to amplify offensive chaos. Action247’s analysis nailed it: “Both teams score over 118 points per game, and the Trail Blazers allow over 122.” That’s not basketball. That’s a track meet with jerseys.
Team-Specific Trends and Betting Lines
The Suns’ team total is set at 117.5 points, with the Over at -105. The Trail Blazers’ total is 118.5, Over -108. Both lines are calibrated for high output. Even the opening line — Suns +1.5 (-110) vs. Trail Blazers -2 (-110) — shifted to +2.5 as public money flooded in on Phoenix. That’s a clear signal: bettors believe Portland’s poor defense and inconsistent play will collapse under pressure. The Trail Blazers’ home record is 3-4, but their scoring defense? A disaster. They’ve allowed 125+ points in four of their last six home games. Meanwhile, the Suns have won three of their last four road games, including a 124-121 win over the Lakers in their last away outing.
Who’s Calling the Shots?
One analyst on Action Network, identified only as “Tailing BetOnBone #RambleGLeague #SandysDemomsPicks Office,” has a 211-186-6 record over the last 30 days and is recommending Portland -125 with a 1-unit bet. But here’s the thing — even that pick feels like a trap. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS. Their last win came against the Sacramento Kings, a team that’s also struggling. Meanwhile, the Suns have beaten the Clippers, Nuggets, and Jazz in their last five — all playoff-caliber teams. Their bench depth, led by Jalen Smith and Jalen Suggs, has been a quiet strength. Portland’s backcourt, meanwhile, is dealing with injury uncertainty. Anfernee Simons is questionable. Damian Lillard? Still recovering from offseason surgery. The team’s identity is in flux.
Playoff Implications and the Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about tonight. The Western Conference is a bloodbath. The 8th seed (Suns) and 9th seed (Trail Blazers) are separated by just half a game. Win this one, and you steal momentum. Lose it, and you fall into the play-in lottery. The Suns are playing with house money — they’ve exceeded expectations. The Blazers? They’re clinging to relevance. If Portland loses again, especially at home, the pressure on coach Chauncey Billups will intensify. Meanwhile, the Suns’ front office is quietly evaluating trade options for the deadline. This game could be the tipping point.
What to Watch For
- Phoenix’s ability to control tempo — they’re better at slowing games down than Portland.
- Portland’s interior defense — they’ve given up 58+ points in the paint in four of their last five.
- The third quarter — both teams are historically weak in the third, often allowing 35+ points.
- Free throws — the Suns are 15th in free throw rate; the Blazers are 29th. That gap could decide a tight game.
Final Verdict
Don’t be fooled by the moneyline. The Trail Blazers might win the game — but they won’t cover. The Suns are the smarter bet at +2.5. And with both teams playing like offensive juggernauts and Portland’s defense crumbling at home, the Over 235.5 is the play. The Moda Center will be rocking. The stats agree. The public agrees. Even the analysts who picked Portland are quietly rethinking their picks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Suns considered underdogs despite having a better record?
Despite their 9-6 record and 8th-place standing, the Suns are underdogs because the Trail Blazers are playing at home and have stronger recent win probability on the moneyline (-125 vs. +103). Betting markets often weight home-court advantage and perceived team chemistry over raw win-loss records, especially when a team like Portland has shown flashes of offensive firepower — even if their defense is among the league’s worst.
Is the Over 235.5 a safe bet?
Yes, statistically. The Trail Blazers have gone Over in 5 of their last 6 home games, and both teams average over 118 points per game. Portland allows 122.2 points per game — the third-highest in the NBA. Combined with Phoenix’s offensive efficiency and Portland’s poor transition defense, the Over has a 77-78% public bet rate for a reason: the data supports it.
What’s the significance of the Suns covering the +2.5 spread?
Covering the spread means Phoenix wins by 2 or more, or loses by 2 or fewer. The Suns have covered in 4 of their last 5 games, while Portland has failed to cover in all 5. This trend suggests Phoenix is consistently more competitive than their odds imply. Even if they lose, they’re likely to keep it close — making them the smarter bet for value.
How do injuries affect this game?
Portland’s backcourt is thin. Anfernee Simons is questionable, and Damian Lillard remains limited after offseason surgery. Phoenix’s depth, especially with Jalen Suggs and Jalen Smith stepping up, gives them an edge in rotation and stamina. Even if Portland wins, they may struggle to close out games without full-strength guards.
Could this game impact playoff seeding?
Absolutely. The Suns (8th) and Trail Blazers (9th) are separated by just 0.5 games. A win here gives either team a crucial tiebreaker advantage. With only 10 teams in the West vying for 7 playoff spots, every game in this range matters. A loss for Portland could drop them into the play-in, while a Suns win might push them into the top 7.
Why is the public betting so heavily on the Suns despite the spread?
Because the public sees the disconnect between the odds and reality. Portland’s 0-5 ATS streak, terrible defense, and inconsistent offense clash with their moneyline favoritism. Meanwhile, Phoenix has been quietly dominant — winning close games, covering spreads, and playing with confidence. Bettors aren’t just following the line; they’re following the trend.
Author
Ava Bialy
I'm a passionate artist and art enthusiast. I enjoy exploring different visual art forms, from painting to sculpting, and I love learning about the history of art and its impact on society. I'm always looking for new ways to express myself and to share my creativity with the world.