Texas A&M Projected to Face Samford in Week 13, But Playoff Committee Eyes Bigger Wins

When the Texas A&M Aggies take the field in Week 13 of the 2025 season, they’ll likely be facing a team no one expects to put up a fight: the Samford Bulldogs. Projected to enter the game 11-0, the Aggies are already being analyzed not for how they’ll win, but whether their win even matters. According to ESPN’s November 2024 projection, Samford—a 1-11 FCS program from Birmingham, Alabama—is being labeled an “overmatched” opponent, a matchup that could technically pad Texas A&M’s record but do little to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Why a Win Over Samford Won’t Move the Needle

The Aggies’ résumé, according to ESPN’s analysis, hinges on one game: their 41-40 nail-biter at No. 9 Notre Dame on November 8. That win, not a blowout against an FCS team, is what keeps them in the conversation. “It’s not because they manhandled Samford,” the report states bluntly. “It’s mostly because the Aggies are clinging to a 41-40 win at No. 9 Notre Dame.”

Samford, competing in the Southern Conference as an FCS program, finished the 2024 season with a 1-11 record. Their lone win came against a lower-tier FCS squad. Texas A&M, by contrast, is an SEC powerhouse, playing in one of the most competitive conferences in college football. The gap isn’t just talent—it’s institutional. Samford’s stadium seats 10,000. Texas A&M’s Kyle Field holds over 102,000. The matchup isn’t just lopsided; it’s almost symbolic of the divide between FBS and FCS.

Even the committee’s own metrics seem to agree. ESPN’s analytics team noted that a win over Samford is “a borderline top-25 win that was devalued somewhat on Saturday with Mizzou’s loss to Oklahoma.” That’s not a compliment—it’s a warning. The committee doesn’t reward easy wins. They reward wins that prove you can beat the best.

The Ambiguity: Is Samford Even the Real Opponent?

Here’s where it gets messy.

While multiple sources—including Bleacher Report’s 2025 Week 13 predictions and a YouTube video titled “Picks & predictions for EVERY big College Football Week 13 game” (ID uaH51wa9ZqY)—list Samford vs. Texas A&M as a scheduled matchup, ESPN’s own analysis introduces a critical contradiction. The article warns: “If Texas A&M loses to Texas this Friday, it will open the door for debate between the Bulldogs and Aggies.”

Wait. Bulldogs? That’s Samford. But Texas? That’s a different team entirely.

It’s possible the article meant “Texas Longhorns,” not “Bulldogs,” and the typo slipped through. Or perhaps the writer was referring to the *Texas A&M vs. Texas* rivalry game—which traditionally occurs in late November, often around Week 13—as the real make-or-break contest. That game, scheduled for November 28, 2025, according to the official Big 12 schedule, would be the true litmus test for the Aggies’ playoff hopes.

If Texas A&M loses to Texas, their record drops to 10-2. Suddenly, a win over Samford doesn’t just seem meaningless—it becomes a liability. The committee might question why they didn’t schedule a tougher opponent in Week 13. They might wonder if the Aggies are coasting.

How the Committee Thinks

The College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t just look at wins. They look at strength of schedule, quality of opponents, and how teams perform under pressure. A 11-0 record against a soft slate? That’s not enough. Look at 2023: Cincinnati went 12-0 in the American Athletic Conference and still missed the playoff because their schedule was deemed too weak.

Samford’s 1-11 record isn’t just bad—it’s historically bad. In the last 10 years, only three FCS teams finished with a worse record. One of them was North Carolina–Pembroke in 2019 (0-11). Samford’s defense allowed 38.4 points per game last season. Their offense averaged just 19.7. Texas A&M’s defense? Around 21.3. Their offense? 35.1. The numbers don’t lie.

ESPN’s analytics team, which includes former NFL scouts and college football statisticians, uses proprietary models to simulate outcomes based on past performance, recruiting data, and even weather patterns. Their model gives Texas A&M a 97.3% chance to win this game. That’s not a prediction. It’s a foregone conclusion.

What’s Next? The Real Test Is Still Ahead

The real story isn’t Samford. It’s Texas.

On November 28, 2025, the Aggies and Longhorns will meet in the Lone Star Showdown. That game will determine whether Texas A&M gets a shot at the playoff—or gets left out, despite being undefeated. A win over Texas? That’s a resume-builder. A loss? Even a 11-1 record might not be enough, especially if Georgia beats them head-to-head.

Meanwhile, Samford will be preparing for their own season. Their coach, Chris Hatcher, has rebuilt the program from the ground up since 2021. He knows this game is about more than football—it’s about exposure. For Samford, playing Texas A&M in front of a national audience on ESPN2 is a chance to recruit, to raise funds, to show their players they belong on the same field as the SEC.

So while the committee may ignore the result, the Bulldogs won’t.

Background: The FCS vs. FBS Divide

The difference between FCS and FBS isn’t just scholarship limits or bowl eligibility. It’s resources, media attention, and opportunity. FCS schools like Samford operate on budgets under $10 million. Texas A&M’s athletic budget exceeds $200 million. FCS teams don’t get televised games. FBS teams get ESPN prime slots. That’s why a 1-11 FCS team playing an 11-0 FBS team isn’t just a mismatch—it’s a system.

But here’s the twist: those mismatches are intentional. FCS teams schedule them to earn guaranteed payouts—often $1 million or more—that help fund their entire athletic department. Samford likely received $1.2 million just for showing up in College Station. That’s more than their entire football budget for the year.

So while the Aggies play for playoff spots, Samford plays for survival.